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by G. Steven Bray
If FHFA Director Mel Watt has his way, we’ll have 3% down conventional loans again soon, but he’ll have to overcome criticism that lower down payments represent a return to the policies that led to the housing crash.
Watt said the loan program he envisions would have tougher requirements, such as stronger credit histories or housing counseling, and Fannie Mae’s CEO claimed the new Dodd-Frank regulations will ensure borrowers can afford to repay the loans.
Some independent analysis supports the safety of the proposed program. An Urban Institute study found that credit scores were a much better predictor of default risk than down payment size. It concluded that allowing loans with down payments less than the current 5% limit should have a negligible effect on default risk.
Critics point out that it’s not the ability to repay that concerns them, but the ability to weather another decline in home values. It’s undeniable that having “no skin in the game” was a factor in some homeowners strategically defaulting on their underwater mortgages.
Still others worry that this is “just the camel’s nose under the tent.” They say it’s naive to think this won’t lead to a further erosion of underwriting standards over time.
However this plays out, I think Watt is being politically astute in sharing his plan with various interest groups and Congress. FHFA can change the minimum down payment requirement without Congressional approval, but I suspect Watt would like the cover that a broad consensus would give him.