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Tag: homebuyer survey

  • Fannie survey says it’s a seller’s market

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    Based on Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), it looks like consumers think we’re in a seller’s market. (I’m sure that comes as a big surprise to you.) For only the second time in the history of the index, the net share of those saying it’s a good time to sell exceeded the net share saying it’s a good time to buy. This happened because of an 8-point decline in the good time to buy index to a record low and a 6-point rise in the good time to sell index, which reached a record high.

    I think the surprising result isn’t that we’re in a seller’s market but that it took so long for this reality to show up in the index. While the buy index is only slightly lower than it was last year and hasn’t varied a lot over the last 12 months, the sell index is 19 points higher than last year.

    Changes in other components of the index were less dramatic. The net share who thinks mortgage rates will rise fell by five points, but the vast majority of respondents still believes rates will rise. The net share who thinks home prices will rise also fell by five points. This result seems anomalous as recent home price data all point to increasing and sometimes rapidly increasing home prices.

    The survey also showed that consumers’ confidence in their personal financial situation continues to be strong with a net 71% not concerned about losing their jobs and a much larger share expecting household income to rise this year. The share who believes the economy is on the right track also ticked higher to 47%, which bests the wrong track share by seven points.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here for a link to the survey results.

  • Fannie survey shows homebuyers optimistic

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index recovered in Apr from its recent swoon to its second highest level in survey history. The index is 3 points higher than last Apr and is similar to the level reached during last year’s spring buying season.

    The most interesting results of the survey are the 5-point rise in the net share who thinks now is a good time to buy a home and the 5-point decline in the net share who think now is a good time to sell. I don’t generally put much stock in one month’s data, but the size of the change is a bit alarming and could suggest that home inventory problems will not end soon. However, averaging the data over several months shows that the net share saying “good time to buy” has remained somewhat constant while the net share saying “good time to sell” has been slowly rising. It will be interesting to see if the numbers reverse next month.

    One positive conclusion from the survey is that Americans continue to feel better about their financial situations. The net share who feel confident about their jobs jumped 7 points, and the net share reporting their income has increased significantly in the last year rose 2 points. With respect to the economy, the right track/wrong track indicator remains positive with a net 7% saying the economy is on the right track.

    I found two other data points interesting. The difference between the expected rise in rental prices and expected rise in home prices has narrowed this year. Last year, respondents predicted rents would rise by 4% while home prices would rise by only 2%. They now expect home prices to rise by 3%, which might create some sense of urgency to act before buying a home becomes unaffordable.

    Finally, the net share who think it’s easy to get a mortgage today continues to rise, suggesting consumers have less apprehension about the mortgage process.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here for a link to the survey results.

    May 15, 2017