Cool Tools News Spool

Tag: housing survey

  • Fannie survey says it’s a seller’s market

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    Based on Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI), it looks like consumers think we’re in a seller’s market. (I’m sure that comes as a big surprise to you.) For only the second time in the history of the index, the net share of those saying it’s a good time to sell exceeded the net share saying it’s a good time to buy. This happened because of an 8-point decline in the good time to buy index to a record low and a 6-point rise in the good time to sell index, which reached a record high.

    I think the surprising result isn’t that we’re in a seller’s market but that it took so long for this reality to show up in the index. While the buy index is only slightly lower than it was last year and hasn’t varied a lot over the last 12 months, the sell index is 19 points higher than last year.

    Changes in other components of the index were less dramatic. The net share who thinks mortgage rates will rise fell by five points, but the vast majority of respondents still believes rates will rise. The net share who thinks home prices will rise also fell by five points. This result seems anomalous as recent home price data all point to increasing and sometimes rapidly increasing home prices.

    The survey also showed that consumers’ confidence in their personal financial situation continues to be strong with a net 71% not concerned about losing their jobs and a much larger share expecting household income to rise this year. The share who believes the economy is on the right track also ticked higher to 47%, which bests the wrong track share by seven points.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here for a link to the survey results.

  • Fannie housing index shows renewed confidence

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index reversed a 5-month slide in Jan, climbing two points. The index is 1.2 points higher than this time last year, which may bode well for spring home buying.

    The rise mirrors increases in other measures of consumer confidence, which recently hit post-recession highs. In the Fannie survey, I think the most interesting result was the five-point rise in the net share of consumers reporting significantly higher income in the last year. A higher percentage also expects their financial situation to improve in the coming year. Given the growing concern about home affordability, if consumers are feeling more flush, it may abate some of this concern.

    One dramatic result of the survey was the share who expects home prices to rise in the next year, which increased 7 points. This probably reflects growing concerns about home affordability, but interestingly, it runs counter to the recent hard data, which shows home prices moderating. If home prices continue to moderate, it might give you an opportunity to present prospective homebuyers with this contrarian news that would come as a welcome surprise.

    Finally, the share who said now is a good time to sell rose two points, while the share saying it’s a good time to buy fell three points. I suspect this, too, reflects concerns about affordability.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here for the survey results.

  • Fannie housing survey dips again

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index dipped again in Sep, moving further away from the high it hit in Jul. Fannie says the drop indicates increasingly cautious consumers. However, some of the caution may be misplaced.

    Of the 6 index components, the one that decreased the most was the net share of consumers who expect mortgage rates to go up as opposed to go down. 49% said rates will rise whereas only 5% think they’ll fall. As I’ve been reporting in my weekly rate updates on Star Bits, I expect rates will stay within the same pretty narrow range over the coming year.

    More disconcerting was the drop in the share of consumers who think now is a good time to buy. The net share – the difference between those who think it’s a good time to buy and those who don’t – dropped 5 points to the lowest level in the survey’s history.

    Some of the consumer caution may be reflected in the job concern component. An increasing share is concerned about losing their jobs in the next year. However, that is balanced by a higher percentage who report their income is significantly higher than it was last year.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010, and you’ll find a link to the survey results at the end of my blog.

  • Fannie survey paints a downbeat picture of housing

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    As we head into the spring home-buying season, Fannie Mae’s latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) presents a somewhat pessimistic picture of the housing market. The index dropped 2.5 points last month to its lowest level since Sep 2014.

    Much of the drop can be attributed to consumers’ concerns about the economy. Despite decent government job numbers from the Labor Dept, respondents expressed a significantly greater concern about their job security and household income. This was reflected quite starkly in the right track/wrong track index – the percentage difference between those who think the economy is on the right track versus the wrong track. The index, which has been in a downtrend since Dec, decreased to its lowest level (-25) since Mar 2014.

    Also disconcerting are the survey’s good time to sell and buy indicators. The good time to sell indicator fell 8 points, and the good time to buy indicator fell 2 points. This may be a reflection of respondents’ concerns about their financial situation.

    While the survey’s results were mostly downbeat, I did see a couple bright spots. Respondents still expected rent and home prices to rise in the coming year, which could give potential homebuyers a sense of urgency. Additionally, respondents expected rents to rise twice as fast as home prices. An increasing percentage also said they would buy rather than rent if they were going to move.

    While the concern about the economy is troubling, I’m not convinced the index has turned over. It remains above 80 despite month-to-month variations, and the recent drop may be a reflection of the ongoing political debate. Economic reports continue to be mixed, which suggests a more steady housing market.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here for a link to the survey results at the end of my blog.

  • Housing stronger than indicated by Fannie housing survey index

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    Industry reporters focused on the negative in the latest Fannie Mae housing survey. The headline Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) dropped about 2% from Dec to a reading of 81.5. But if you analyze the survey data, I don’t think the results are as dire as the headlines would have us believe.

    The most significant negative I saw in the report is the year-long decline in the share of folks who think now is a good time to buy a home. I suspect that’s a reflection of the so-called affordability crisis. Whether a crisis actually exists, the media is beating it into people’s heads that housing is becoming unaffordable.

    On the flip side, the share of folks who think now is a good time to sell is trending higher. This could lead to more inventory hitting the market for the spring selling season.

    If concern about personal finances was the factor driving the decline in folks saying it’s a good time to buy, it’s not showing up in the survey results. The share that expects their personal financial situation to improve has been rising for the last 6m, and job security has remained steady within the survey’s margin of error during the same period. However, while folks don’t express concern about their personal situation, the right track-wrong track survey of the economy continues to grow increasingly negative.

    I noticed several other positive nuggets in the report:

    – A steadily increasing share of folks expects mortgage rates to increase in the next year. That may create a sense of urgency among potential homebuyers.

    – Respondents expect rental rates to rise almost twice as fast as home prices. Got any renters sitting on the fence?

    – And, finally, the respondents are becoming increasing positive about the ease of qualifying for a mortgage.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. You’ll find a link to the survey results at the end of my blog.

    Click here for the survey results.

  • Fannie housing survey results say “buy now”

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    The latest Fannie Mae housing survey holds some cautionary results for those in the real estate industry. Both the share of respondents who believe now is a good time to sell and now is a good time to buy fell last month, with the latter hitting an all-time survey low at 61%.

    Fannie economists suspect the results are shaded by global economic headlines, particularly the Greek default and Chinese stock market plunge. Year-over-year, the indicators measured in the survey are as strong as or stronger than a year ago.

    If you chalk up these disconcerting results to headline weariness, it’s easy to find some positive news in the numbers.

    – Consumers still expect home prices and rents to rise, and they expect rents to rise 50% faster than home prices. Thus, potential homebuyers have an incentive to act sooner rather than later, especially if they’re currently renting.

    – An increasing percentage, now 51%, also thinks mortgage rates are going to rise in the next year, providing more incentive to buy now.

    – The share of respondents who say their next move will be a home purchase ticked up to 65%.

    – Finally, the survey hasn’t shown an appreciable change in consumers’ attitudes about their own finances in the last 12 months. This lends further credence to the analysis suggesting the results may be skewed by world headlines.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here to see the full survey results.

  • Latest Fannie housing survey points to improving market

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    The latest Fannie Mae housing survey contains a few nuggets for the housing market. Perhaps the most exciting is consumers’ attitudes about the selling climate. The percentage who thinks now is a good time to sell a home climbed to a survey high of 52%, the first time this statistic has exceeded 50% in the survey. Given the lean inventory numbers of late, this is a welcome result.

    The other nuggets are the percentage of respondents who think rents will rise in the next year increased 4 points to 59% while a decreasing percentage, 47%, think home prices will rise. Further, the average expected rent increase is 4.2%, while the average home price increase is 2.6%. Moreover, an increasing percentage believes that mortgage rates will rise in the next year. Thus, more renters may be motivated to consider buying a home and buying soon.

    On the negative side, a declining percentage think now is a good time to buy. This correlates with consumers’ overall view of the economy. A majority say the economy is on the wrong track even though they view their personal situation more positively. This may represent a headwind for the market, but for those consumers who are less concerned or less cautious, it sounds like there’s plenty to motivate them to act.

    Fannie’s housing survey reflects the attitudes of 1000 consumers about the housing market and the economy. Fannie has conducted the survey each month since June 2010. Click here for the full survey results.

  • Fannie survey provides reason for optimism

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    I think the most positive news from the May Fannie Mae Housing Survey is the percentage of respondents reporting a significant increase in their household income in the last year. This statistic climbed to a near survey-high of 28%. Those expecting improvement in their personal finances also rose. These results are consistent with the recent jobs and personal income reports showing on average consumers are earning more. While this hasn’t translated yet into increased consumer spending, if the trend continues, it should be positive for homebuying.

    Unfortunately, respondents are increasingly negative about the overall economy. Only 38% of respondents think the economy is on the right track, the lowest percentage in almost a year. So while consumers may be earning more, it may be challenging to get them to step up to a big financial commitment, like buying a new home.

    But the resistance may be softening. An increasing percentage believes now is both a good time to buy and to sell a home. The latter reached an all-time survey high of 49% and is particularly important given the current dearth of housing inventory. Further, an increasing share says if they were going to move, they would buy rather than rent.

    Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan says the “good time to sell” and “income growth” questions are key indicators for the housing market, and their increases suggest moderate improvement in the market this year.

    Note that Fannie completed this survey prior to the recent mortgage rate increases. Assuming rates don’t reverse, it will be interesting to see if the Jun survey continues to show optimism or if the higher rates sap momentum as they did last year.

    Click here for a link to the survey results.

  • Fannie housing survey reveals cautious homebuyers

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    Fannie Mae’s Apr National Housing Survey revealed good news and bad news about the housing market. The good news was that the recent slide in consumer sentiment towards housing reversed. The bad news was consumers are becoming more wary of their ability to afford a home.

    Sixty-three percent of respondents said they would prefer to buy a home next time they move. This reverses the recent slide in this index and is up from a survey low of 60% in Mar. An increasing majority expects rental rates to increase in the next year, and the average expected rate of increase is 4.1%, much higher than the survey’s average expected home price increase. This presents a continuing opportunity to convince would-be renters to become homebuyers instead.

    Unfortunately, a declining share believes now is a good time to buy a home. Fannie cites renewed concerns about rising home prices and recent economic weakness as causing the decline. The average expected home price increase ticked up again this month, and an increasing majority believed the economy is on the wrong track. Interestingly, this result is at odds with respondents’ views of their own financial situation, which generally improved. Thus, should the economy improve this summer, this nervousness could pass quickly.

    Click here for a link to the survey results.

  • Fannie housing survey shows increasing optimism

    For more information, please contact me at (512) 261-1542 or steve@LoneStarLending.com.

    by G. Steven Bray

    The Jan Fannie Mae National Housing survey reveals increasing optimism among US consumers, which may portend a good spring homebuying season. Three results really jumped out at me.

    First, 29% of respondents said their income is significantly higher this year, and 48% expect their financial situation to improve in the coming year. Both of these figures are all-time survey highs. Also interesting, the gap between those who expect their situation to improve and those who expect it to stay the same expanded to 9 points.

    Second, the share who thinks now is a good time to sell reached a survey high of 44%. Two of the biggest impediments to the housing recovery have been stagnant incomes and lack of housing inventory. These first two survey results may indicate a lessening of these barriers.

    Finally, the share who says they would buy if they were going to move jumped 5 points to 66%, and the difference between potential buyers and renters gapped out to 37%. That means more than twice as many folks would buy as rent.

    Fannie has been conducting this survey since 2010. The survey highs are exciting, but I’ll caution you that I’ve noticed the responses about personal finances seem to mirror consumer sentiment reports. As such, the numbers are liable to fall again next month. However, I think the sell/hold and buy/rent numbers are affected by many other factors and, thus, may provide more hope for more robust spring homebuying.