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by G. Steven Bray
If you’re worried about the strength of the housing market, you may want to look at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s recently released Housing Demand report. The report predicts as many as 12.7 million new home-owning households by 2024, and it provides the statistics to back it up. That’s roughly 1.3 million a year – pretty significant.
MBA considered two scenarios. In the first, it held homeownership rates at 2014 levels, which were the lowest in decades. Under this scenario, MBA predicts 10.3 million new owner households by 2024. In the second scenario, it assumed that homeownership rates will revert to their long term averages, which are less than the pre-crash highs but higher than today’s low. Under this scenario, MBA predicts 12.7 million new owner households.
As you might imagine, the Millennial generation contributes positively to homeownership under both scenarios. However, it may surprise you that Baby Boomers are the main source of growth, 9.9 million households (96%) under the first scenario to 9.6 million (76%) under the second scenario.
Based on other recent studies that show Baby Boomers preferring to age in place, I’d suggest the results may underestimate the already enormous effect of that generation on the number of new owner households.
Regardless of which scenario plays out, it appears the next decade will witness much stronger housing demand and one of the largest expansions in the history of the US housing market.
Click here to view the report.